Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Victim of my own sucess

I have been a long-time reader of Eve Fail. Quite a while ago I participated in the lottery that Parasoja ran. I started playing while he was still testing it and kept playing. Since there was no rake, your chance of winning was your percentage of the overall contribution and your profit if you win is pool divided by your investment. In the fourth round I won. Parasoja (perhaps jokingly) suggested that I try it again. I didagain and again. Luck and good planning meant good results. Unsuprisingly, this meant the end of the lottery.

I'm really sorry that I ran this lottery into the ground. I saw it as an investment opportunity, much like a group in Massachusetts did with a particular lottery their state held. Unfortunately, I should have sat out a few rounds, so I didn't smother the baby in the cradle, but I got greedy. Winning is addictive.

My suggestion to anyone else who trys to run a similar lottery is to take a cut. Seriously. In my real life business dealing I like to know how people are making their money. That gives me an insight into their motivation. Altruism makes people suspicious. Also with no rake in the pot, if you are at 200M from everyone else and you drop 800M in, you now have an 80% chance of winning 1B. Obviously it is a gamble and you would want to vary your exposure, but over then long term it is a winning bet.

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